The longer the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS (news - web sites)) virus rages unchecked, the greater the human and political casualties. After acknowledging that the government initially misled people about the severity of the disease, Chinese President Hu Jintao's team is under pressure to show immediate results in the fight that captivates this capital. If the leadership does not, the consequences could threaten the month-old Hu administration and, some say, Communist rule itself.
''This is a snowball. If it starts rolling downhill . . . who knows where it ends? In the Soviet Union, it didn't end until the system collapsed,'' says Richard Baum, a China specialist at University of California-Los Angeles.
For the Chinese leadership, SARS represents the most dangerous crisis since the Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests in 1989 because it calls into question the regime's fundamental competence.
Two decades after Beijing embraced a market-oriented economy, Communist ideology no longer binds the people to their rulers. Today's Communist Party justifies its political monopoly with a promise of constantly improving living standards (news - web sites). Allowing a deadly epidemic to spiral out of control is at odds with that bargain. (There were 1,570 confirmed SARS cases in Beijing on Thursday with 82 reported deaths.)
The spreading contagion also imperils the economic gains that are essential for continued stability here. If new job development remains depressed for several months, China's major cities could be swamped by millions of jobless migrants from rural areas.
Chinese leaders will do almost anything to avoid the nightmare of domestic unrest. In the past 11 days, since the Chinese health minister and Beijing's mayor were sacked over their handling of SARS, the crisis has forced Hu and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to increase dramatically the candor and volume of information being made public. Several provincial health officials also have been ousted for passivity in the anti-SARS fight. And more money for the country's long-neglected health care system is on the way.
Yet having so badly misplayed the initial stages of the SARS crisis, China's leaders have left themselves little room to maneuver. Now, taking the required uncompromising action itself may endanger social stability.
In the village of Chagugang, outside Tianjin, residents rioted this week when the authorities sought to remodel a vacant building to house suspected SARS sufferers from elsewhere. More protests could erupt if the disease continues to spread into impoverished rural provinces where medical resources are limited.
Chinese officials issued an order this week banning cities and towns from barring vehicles from Beijing. Despite that, an official of the Xiaotangshan township government told the Associated Press on Thursday that local authorities had authorized roadblocks.
''Prevention comes first,'' said the township official, who wouldn't give his name.
''In an authoritarian regime, people have complaints, but not necessarily the same ones as their neighbors,'' says Susan Shirk, a China specialist at the University of California-San Diego. ''But if you start affecting everybody on the same issue at the same time, there is a threat of collective action.''
Most analysts say China is a long way from the sort of upheaval that could overturn communism. China's ruling Communist Party retains the backing of the military. And unlike the Soviet Union before its breakup, Beijing maintains much better political control, Baum notes.
In fact, until SARS exploded, China was ascendant on the global stage. In the first quarter of 2003, China's economy continued a stellar decade-long run by posting a robust 9.9% growth rate. A less confrontational approach to foreign policy eased regional fears about Beijing's growing might. Plans to launch a manned lunar mission this year underscored China's technological flowering.
But the government's ham-handed approach to the viral epidemic, which began last November in the southern province of Guangdong, has been a reminder of the political system's flaws. As the virus spread, government officials initially minimized its extent and ordered a news blackout to avoid spoiling a leadership transition that culminated in the National People's Congress on March 9.
''SARS patients started to appear in Beijing even before the People's Congress. But during the Congress, nobody mentioned SARS. Now it's getting worse every day,'' said Yang Jing, 32, a nurse, who was enjoying the May 1 holiday in central Beijing's Ritan Park.
Government officials didn't start coming clean on the extent of the capital's SARS scare until April 20 -- seven weeks after Beijing's first case. On that day, in an unprecedented move, Health Minister Zhang Wenkang and Beijing Mayor Meng Xuenong were fired for covering up the SARS toll. The sackings marked the first time since the communist revolution in 1949 that officials were fired for poor performance rather than ideological or factional conflict.
Even so, there are limits to the more open policy. Meng, a member of Hu's political faction, is widely regarded as a scapegoat included in the housecleaning only to balance the dismissal of Zhang, a backer of former president Jiang Zemin (news - web sites), who remains influential.
Whether the SARS fallout eventually will bring down the new government, or permanently modify China's opaque political culture, cannot yet be known.
If the illness is not curbed within two months, then ''Hu's political career could be problematic,'' says Wu Guoguang, a former editorial writer for Beijing's state-controlled press. ''But if it's under control in one month, then it could be OK.''
In Beijing's political hothouse, rumors of eventual leadership challenges are routine.
Most speculation centers on Zeng Qinghong, a member of the Politburo inner circle and a protégé of former president Jiang. But in a speech April 24 to the Central Party School, Zeng urged officials to ''gather around President Hu Jintao, pool the wisdom and efforts of everyone to win the battle against SARS.''
For now, it would be political suicide to be perceived as pursuing personal ambition rather than uniting against the epidemic.
Among the public, there is muted anger and disgust at the initial deception. But some people say they will give China's new leaders a second chance.
''This incident is very serious. But I believe the government is doing its best and can get it under control,'' said a 45-year-old businessman who gave only his family name, Zhou. ''From this, they can learn a lot about how to improve the system.''
That attitude, the legacy of decades of experience with powerful and distant rulers, offers a window of opportunity for Hu and Wen. If they wrestle SARS into submission in Beijing, they might still be hailed as heroes.