FT.com
 
. All times are London time.
 

Home
World
US
UK
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Middle East & Africa
Americas
International economy
Brussels briefing
News headlines
News in depth
Business
Markets
Markets data & tools
Industries
Lex
Comment & analysis
Technology
Management
Your money
Arts & Weekend
Sport
Jobs & classifieds
In today's FT
FT Reports
Creative Business
FTfm
FT-IT
World reports
Business reports


News in depth
   Rebuilding Iraq
 WMD guide
 Science briefing
 China
 Terror

Columnists
   Martin Wolf
 Lucy Kellaway
 Philip Stephens
 Quentin Peel
 Lombard
 Gerard Baker
 Amity Shlaes

World / Middle East & Africa Print article | Email
Shia unrest spells trouble for US policy in Iraq
By Charles Clover in Baghdad and Roula Khalaf in London
Published: January 13 2004 17:31 | Last Updated: January 13 2004 17:31

A wave of riots has spread throughout cities in Iraq's southern, predominantly Shia Muslim provinces this week, just as a growing disagreement between US policymakers and a key Shia cleric threatened to derail the US-led political transition in Baghdad.

On Tuesday 400 rioters in the southern Shia town of Kut attacked Iraqi police and Ukrainian soldiers with rocks and explosives, injuring one Ukrainian and four policemen, according to a police officer.

The mob was protesting against unemployment and poverty in the city, according to news reports, and the riot followed a similar one in the nearby Shia city of Amara on Saturday, in which six demonstrators were killed when Iraqi police and British soldiers opened fire on the crowd.

The violence served a powerful reminder of the risks of alienating the Shia community, which makes up a majority of the country's population, at a critical moment in Iraq's fragile political process.

On Sunday, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the supreme spiritual leader of Iraq's Shia, issued a fatwa or religious edict restating his objection to the US strategy aimed at returning sovereignty to Iraq in June.

He again called for members of a transitional national assembly - due to be in place by the end of May - to be directly elected, rather than selected by provincial caucuses as envisioned by the US plan.

For the last two months, coalition officials have been pressing ahead with the US plan, assuming that the elderly Ayatollah would change his mind. Instead, Mr Sistani's issuance of a a formal written ruling on the matter, which in Islam is tantamount to a law, all but ruled that out.

On Monday, Paul Bremer, the US civil chief in Baghdad, said he would press ahead with the original plan of holding caucuses to select members, calling it "the best way forward to return sovereignty to the Iraqi people".

But according to people close to the coalition, the caucus process will be modified to involve a degree of popular elections. It remains unclear whether this will satisfy Mr Sistani.

One of the ideas under consideration is that selected candidates to represent every province on the transitional assembly be approved in a "quick and dirty" election. Another possibility is to hold a referendum on the composition of the assembly.

Insisting that Mr Sistani's opposition is a problem but not an insurmountable obstacle, people close to the coalition said they sensed that his influence in the provinces was not as great as some analysts might suggest.

The US, however, cannot afford to risk a confrontation with Mr Sistani. The major victory of coalition policy in Iraq has been the goodwill of the Shia, who make up more than half of Iraq's population. Losing their support would be devastating to US policy.

The US administration is under pressure to show tangible progress on the political front before the US presidential elections in November. But the combined political demands of Iraq's three main ethnic and religious groups - Kurds, Shia, and Sunni Arabs - appear to be unravelling the carefully constructed political strategy set out in November.

Kurds have lately renewed pressure for guarantees that their northern region will be given some strong form of autonomy within a federal Iraq.

"There is no alternative to this decision... We will not wait, otherwise we will lose our chance," Ma'soom Anwar, of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, said on Al Arabiya television channel on Monday night.

Both Sunni and Shia Arabs, however, oppose an ethnic form of federalism, as demanded by the Kurds.

Meanwhile US officials hope they can use the transitional assembly to provide better representation for Sunni Arabs, and thereby cool the unrest throughout the so-called 'Sunni triangle'.

But this may cut into Shia dominance of the political process, until now formalised by an unofficial quota system that gives them a majority of seats in the cabinet and the US-appointed Governing Council.

email this EMAIL THIS print this PRINT THIS most popular MOST POPULAR  
Related stories
On London: Are UK shares due for a correction?  Dec 26 2003 14:54 Requires subscription
South Korea to add 3,000 troops in Iraq  Dec 18 2003 00:46 Requires subscription
US relents over Iraq contracts  Jan 13 2004 19:15
Fear of ambush slows urgent drive to rebuild  Jan 13 2004 18:21
Rumsfeld warned of US war crimes  Jan 13 2004 17:01
Democrats try to clean up Iowa  Jan 13 2004 04:00
Conference in Jordan draws Iraqi criticism  Jan 11 2004 23:23
Iraqi threat to overturn US broadcasting contract  Jan 09 2004 20:36 Requires subscription
Nine die as US helicopter crashes in Iraq  Jan 08 2004 18:41 Requires subscription
Bechtel wins $1.8bn deal for Iraq rebuilding  Jan 07 2004 01:35 Requires subscription
Requires subscription = requires subscription to FT.com
Search & quotes

NewsQuotes
  • Power searchRequires subscription
  • My portfolio

  • Editor's choice
      Shia unrest spells trouble for US policy in Iraq

    Bush team revising plans for Iraqi self-rule

    UN wary of role in Iraq before transfer of sovereignty Requires subscription

    Kurds throw up new hurdle to Iraq sovereignty Requires subscription

    Shia cleric urges UN involvement in transition Requires subscription

    Related stories
     On London: Are UK shares due for a correction?Requires subscription

    South Korea to add 3,000 troops in IraqRequires subscription

    US relents over Iraq contracts

    Fear of ambush slows urgent drive to rebuild

    Rumsfeld warned of US war crimes

    Email & tools
       News alerts
     News summaries
     Personal office
     Download news ticker
     Currency converter

    Research tools
       Analyst reports
     FT Research Centre
     Free annual reports
     Market research
     Growth companies
     D&B business reports

      Home World | Business | Markets news | Markets data & tools | Industries | Lex | Your money | Comment & analysis | Reports | Arts & Weekend | Sport | Jobs & classifieds | In today's FT | Media inquiries | Site services Contact us | Help