Reuters Alertnet Foundation Logo
Alerting humanitarians to emergencies
 Username: 
 Password: 
 Sign me in automatically
About AlertNet  | Why log in?  | Help
You are here: Homepage > Newsdesk > Mounting opposition to Nepal king - some scenarios
Take the quiz...
AlertNet Challenge

Global Pledge-o-meter
Tsunami Aidwatch


LOW GRAPHICS
GET WEEKLY EMAIL
ALERTING


Weekly appeal
Save the Children UK - Six months on from South Asia Earthquake 300,000 children still unable to go to school


Powered by SUN
Mounting opposition to Nepal king - some scenarios
10 Apr 2006 09:59:53 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Y.P. Rajesh

KATHMANDU, April 10 (Reuters) - Fresh protests against King Gyanendra's absolute rule erupted across Nepal on Monday, the fifth day of an increasingly volatile mass campaign that seeks the restoration of democracy in the Himalayan kingdom.

The protests by the political parties, who are backed by Maoists rebels trying to topple the monarchy since 1996, are the most intense since the Hindu monarch sacked the government 14 months ago.

The royalist government has responded by saying it will get tougher on the protesters, indicating a hardening of positions by both sides while the impoverished country remains shut down since Thursday when a general strike began.

Following are some possible scenarios:

PROTESTS MOUNT: KING TALKS WITH POLITICAL PARTIES

- Protests gather pace and King Gyanendra finds himself isolated domestically as well as internationally.

The king decides he has no choice but to negotiate with the political parties to defuse the crisis. The parties have in the past refused talks unless the issue of resolving the Maoist revolt is also on the agenda.

The king, whose government calls the Maoists "terrorists", may agree to their pre-condition if the protests get out of hand.

"Some in the royalist government feel he should not delay any more and reach out to the parties. But the hardliners think the protests should be crushed," said Yubaraj Ghimire, editor of popular Nepali weekly 'Samay'.

"He could offer talks again if these protests are successful."

KING USES FORCE TO CRUSH PROTESTS

- King Gyanendra is known to think that his elder brother, the late King Birendra, was weak when he gave in to a similar mass campaign in 1990 that led to the introduction of multi-party democracy in Nepal.

With the army solidly behind him, the king may believe he can crush the Maoist rebellion and can face down political protests by force, some analysts said.

The royalist government warned as much when Home Minister Kamal Thapa said on Sunday troops had been restrained despite orders to shoot curfew violators but they would no longer be so.

MAOISTS STEP UP VIOLENCE

- Maoist rebels, who are backing the political campaign without joining it and have announced a truce in and around Kathmandu, could step up attacks on the army in the countryside if the king shows no signs of giving in.

This would divert the attention of the army away from the capital, where it is playing a key role in containing the protests. That could leave riot police badly stretched and put more pressure on the king to negotiate.

THE KING THROWS IN THE TOWEL

- The king decides to step down, return power to an all-party government which will then go on to hold elections to a constituent assembly to decide on the future of monarchy.

This would satisfy a key demand of the Maoists and would offer an avenue to negotiate an end to their 10-year insurgency.

This is considered the simplest way to end the political crisis but also the most unlikely considering King Gyanendra's hardline stance. He is not expected to relent as long as the army backs him. (Additional reporting by Gopal Sharma)

AlertNet news is provided by

Palestinians tighten belts as aid crisis bites (21 minutes ago)
Source: Reuters

EU to back Hamas aid freeze, soften impact (23 minutes ago)
Source: Reuters

Report finds U.S. shooting of Reuters soundman unlawful (57 minutes ago)
Source: Reuters

China hospital blast kills 15-Xinhua (1 hour ago)
Source: Reuters

China vows punishment for surrogate mother business (1 hour ago)
Source: Reuters



Printable view  |  Email this article  |  Send comments

Nepal insurgency


Small country map
© 2004 Europa Technologies Ltd.
China profile
· View map

India profile
· View map

Nepal profile
· View map


Disclaimers  |  Copyright  |  Privacy  |  Contact us  |  Feedback  |  About us  |  RSS
Last updated:Mon Apr 10 10:04:00 2006